How Predictive Planning Gives CPG Brands an Edge

ON THE LAST FRIDAY in February, grocery planning went quiet.

Shopping habits tend to follow predictable rhythms – week in and week out, people add items to their lists in preparation for store runs. But on February 28, something unusual happened. Activity dipped significantly, 15% less than the average Friday.

Fewer lists. Fewer items. Less planning. This was Blackout Friday.

Seeing the Blackout Before It Happens

Blackout Friday was a grassroots social media movement — a call to press pause on all spending for 24 hours in protest of shifting social and economic policies. The idea spread fast, mostly through platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Consumers were encouraged to stay home, avoid shopping and make a statement with their wallets.

And they did.

Industry headlines surfaced days later, once retailers and analysts had time to compile their sales data and compare it to historical trends. But signs of the shift were evident much earlier.

As early as the Monday before Blackout Friday, my team at AdAdapted noticed a slowdown in list-making. Shoppers were preparing in advance for the protest. Some added their groceries to lists earlier in the week. Others delayed. And when Friday hit, list making was significantly quieter.

The Power of Pre-Shop Intent

Before a product ever hits a cart, virtual or physical, there’s a moment when a shopper makes a decision. “Do I need this? Should I buy it now? Will I wait?” We see that moment. And we see it across millions of lists every day.

For CPG brands, this window into intent is everything. While it’s tempting to focus on point-of-sale data, that’s just the end of the story. The real opportunity is influencing the decision before it’s made — when a product gets added to a list. And shoppers are making those decisions far earlier than many brands realize.

Our data shows people typically plan their grocery lists five to seven days in advance. For major events like Super Bowl Sunday, Thanksgiving or a social media-fueled boycott like Blackout Friday, that window is critical. If your brand isn’t part of the consideration set during the planning phase, you’re likely missing the sale entirely.

Predictive Data in Action

Blackout Friday was a clear example of this predictive power. We saw the downturn in planning as it happened, long before sales reports confirmed what was going on. And in the days that followed, we watched planning bounce back just as quickly.

We’re seeing this kind of consumer behavior across categories. People are intentional about when they plan, what they add to lists and how those choices reflect their values and priorities. And when events — whether planned or spontaneous — shift consumer behavior, our data shows it instantly.

That’s a level of visibility brands can’t get from POS data. It’s proactive, not reactive.

How CPG Brands Can Respond

It’s tempting to chalk up Blackout Friday as a one-off event. A flash in the pan. But it’s a big signal, and as a brand, you can’t afford to sit this out.

Here’s what we’re advising our CPG partners to think about:

1. Understand Consumers’ “Why?”

If you’re waiting for sales numbers to tell you what happened, you’re already behind. Pre-shop intent data offers a proactive view — giving brands the ability to act on trends as they emerge. In the case of Blackout Friday, the cause was clear. But in other cases, you’ll need to listen more closely to see the signals — whether it’s a cultural movement, a policy change or shifting economic pressures.

2. Meet Shoppers Where They Plan

Planning happens earlier than you think. If you’re not visible during that five-to-seven-day planning window, you’re missing the chance to influence the final decision. One of the interesting things about Blackout Friday was that consumers were still making lists, just on different days. Shoppers aren’t always on. But when they are, you need to be there. The brands that remained consistently and authentically visible leading up to Blackout Friday — and in the days that followed — maintained relevance. 

3. Prepare for a New Kind of Volatility

We often focus on scaling up and gaining market share. But this moment reminds us that adaptability is just as important. Activism, economic pressures and social media are colliding in ways that can change behavior overnight. Your media plans, inventory management and messaging strategies need to be as flexible as your consumers.

What Comes Next?

Lists are more than a to-do. They’re a window into the future. They reveal the moment when a shopper makes up their mind — long before the sale ever happens.

Blackout Friday made that clear. The decision to pause wasn’t made at the register. It was made in the quiet moments when someone decided not to add to their cart. That’s the opportunity for CPG brands  — to meet consumers where decisions are being made.

Because if you wait for the sales data to tell you what happened, you’ve already missed it.

Molly McFarland is Co-Founder & CRO of AdAdapted.